Year 2016
In the Euro Zone, the economic growth recorded in 2016 was supported by
the low prices of oil, the slightly expansionist fiscal policy and the accom-
modative monetary policy, which are factors that should start disappearing
in 2017. The inflation rate continued to evolve positively.
The main risk factors are of a political nature: Brexit and the elections in
various European countries, which may dictate changes regarding the rela-
tions between countries, including the European project itself.
Situation in Portugal
Recent projections estimate that the Portuguese economy grew by 1.5%
in 2016, and should increase to 1.7% in 2017, while the pace of growth
should stabilise in the following years. The 2% acceleration in the fourth
quarter of 2016, representing greater than expected dynamics in the ma-
jority of the components of aggregate demand, reinforced the probability
of an upwards revision of the growth for 2017.
At the end of the 2017-2019 projection horizon, GDP should reach exactly
the same level as that recorded in 2008. However, with growth lower than
in the euro zone, it will not be possible to reverse the negative differential
accumulated between 2010 and 2013.
The continued failure to be on a par with the euro zone reflects the persis-
tence of structural constraints to growth in the Portuguese economy, where
of particular importance are the high levels of indebtedness in the public
and private sectors, an unfavourable demographic trend and the persis-
tence of inefficiencies in the job market and product market, which require
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