O Ano de 2015
For developed countries, 2015 was a year of recovery of economic
activity.
The US economy grew 2.5% in 2015 (2.4% in 2014) and is expected to
maintain the same pace of expansion in 2016, in spite of the slowdown
in exports, conditioned by the appreciation of the dollar. Growth was
essentially underpinned by the dynamics of household consumption,
based on the strength of the labour market.
The Japanese economy only grew by 0.5% in 2015, as a result of
the decrease in demand of the Chinese economy and other Asian
countries, with the OECD estimating a growth rate of 1% for 2016.
The euro area continued its economic recovery process with GDP
growing 1.5% in 2015. For 2016 and 2017, growth rates of 1.7% and
1.9%, respectively, are expected.
The low price of oil, the depreciation of the euro and the monetary
stimuli of the ECB boosted private consumption and exports. But
the unemployment rate remains high (11%), far above the value reg-
istered in the pre-crisis period, reflectingmajor disparities between
countries: Greece (25.8%) and Spain (22.1%), in contrast with Germany
(5.4%), which has the lowest rate of the Eurozone.
The main risk factors in the recovery process are an economic down-
turn in emerging countries and uncertainties of a political nature.
Situation in Portugal
Recent Bank of Portugal projections estimate that the Portuguese
economy grew by 1.5% in 2015 and will grow 1.7% and 1.8% in 2016 and
2017, respectively.
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