Global situation
In 2012 global GDP grew by nearly 3.2%, confirming the
expected slowdown compared to 2011 (3.9%).
The last quarter of the year saw a gradual upturn in
economic activity, a trend that should be maintained
and consolidated in 2013, with estimated overall gro-
wth of 3.5%. The economies of emerging markets and
developing countries should be the main driving for-
ces for growth (5.1% in 2012 and an estimated 5.5%
in 2013).
In an election year the United States of America posted
2.3% growth. A slight braking is foreseen in 2013, with
GDP growing by 2%, anticipating the effects that the
need to adopt a more restrictive fiscal policy may cause
on family consumption and in the job market.
The intensification of the sovereign debt crisis, reorga-
nization of the Greek debt, more ECB intervention, ex-
pansion of the economic recession and disagreement
about community budget funds were key circumstances
that kept Europe and the euro-zone at the centre of the
world’s attention.
Even though the economic players’ confidence has been
improving in a sustained manner, indicating that the
economic cycle’s lowest point has most likely been cros-
sed, the reality of numbers shows that economic activity
in the euro-zone contracted by 0.4% in 2012. A further
reduction on the order of 0.2% is projected for 2013.
With the French economy close to stagnation, the re-
cession will continue to assail Spain and Italy, while Ger-
many will see its economy’s growth slow from 0.9% in
2012 to 0.6% in 2013.
The risks of an upsurge in social tensions in the sou-
thern European countries condense the uncertainty re-
garding short term evolution.
Situation in Portugal
The year 2012 confirmed the worst of the recessive
scenarios for the Portuguese economy, with GDP con-
tracting 3.2% over the whole year (-3.8% in the fourth
quarter), a direct consequence of the huge reduction in
internal demand (more than 7%).
EcoNoMIc coNtEXt
ECONOMIC CONTEXT
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