MANAGEMENT REPORT
18
World economic situation
According to the IMF, in 2013 the world economy grew
by nearly 3%, falling short of initial expectations, which
projected growth of 3.5%. Economic performance was
disappointing, especially in emerging or developing
economies. Growth is expected to accelerate to around
3.7% in 2014, buoyed by more investment and most
favourable consumption economic policies in the de-
veloped economies and a stabilization of growth in the
emerging economies, with China at the forefront.
In 2013 the United States grew by an average of 1.9%,
in a year marked by severe budgetary restrictions, in-
cluding indiscriminate cuts in public spending and the
temporary shutdown of some public services. This
situation, which had considerable impact in the first
quarter of the year, was resolved by the agreement
that put an end to the stand-off between Democrats
and Republicans. With private demand and investment
on the rise, GDP growth can be expected to return to
Economic
context
rates of around 2.5% in 2014, despite the gradual with-
drawal of monetary stimuli to the economy by the Fed-
eral Reserve.
In spite of the return to positive growth from the second
quarter of 2013, the eurozone economy contracted by
nearly 0.4%, with forecasts of 0.9% growth in 2014. With
European elections on the horizon, the weakness of the
employment market, with unemployment at 12%, is an
additional factor of political instability that could com-
promise the hoped-for start of a new cycle of expansion,
however moderate.
The prevailing optimism sees 2014 as a year of global
recovery and expansion. However, the dependency on
the performance of the financial markets, the doubts
about the maintenance of the growth of the Chinese
economy and the political environment in the eurozone
are just some of the risk factors that could affect the
rate of growth.
