19
ANNUAL REPORT AND CONSOLIDATED ACCOUNTS 2013
Situation in Portugal
Portuguese GDP fell 1.5% in 2013, contradicting most
forecasts, which predicted a slowdown in excess of 2%.
The continued good performance on the external front,
especially as regards exports of goods and services, and
a slight recovery in domestic private demand are the
main factors explaining the less negative behaviour of
the Portuguese economy.
The increase in unemployment, which, despite a slight
dip in the last quarter, rose over the year as a whole from
15.7% to 16.6%, should be noted.
After three consecutive years of recession, the available
indicators suggest that 2014 will see a return tomoderate
growth, estimated at 1% of GDP. No substantial improve-
ment is expected in the employment market, although
the unemployment rate is expected to decline slightly.
As regards the commitments assumed at European
level, the process of fiscal consolidation will continue,
based on cutbacks in public spending, which will mainly
affect spending on public employees, pensions and wel-
fare benefits.
The end of the Economic and Financial Assistance Pro-
gramme will force a transition to a new market-based
model of government financing. This will be a major
challenge to the country’s ability to maintain the confi-
dence of international creditors and improve debt ser-
vice conditions.
The great unknown, however, will be the sustainability of
economic growth, considering the negative impact that
implementation of the additional austerity policies en-
visaged in the 2014 national budget is likely to have on
consumption and private investment.
Situation in Spain
Spanish GDP contracted by nearly 1.2% over 2013 as a
whole. In the last half, after nine consecutive quarters
of contraction, the economy finally showed clear signs
of a change of trend, allowing predictions of moderate
growth in the region of 1% for 2014.
The recovery is attributable to the strengthening of the
export sector, thanks to the increase in competitiveness
