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Economic
Context
Global situation
The latest European Commission estimates indicate
3.3% global GDP growth in 2014, below the initial pro-
jection of 3.7%.
The major international economic institutions never-
theless envisage that the global economy will grow by
3.6% in 2015 and 4.0% in 2016, with improved forecasts
for the large developed economies – the EU, USA and
Japan – andmore sombre prospects for those of emerg-
ing countries.
The economy of the United States of America grew by
2.4% in 2014 and should stay on the expansion course,
with GDP expected to rise by 3.5% in 2015 and 3.2% in
2016. Themain driving forcewill be private consumption,
buoyed by lower oil prices and supported by jobmarket
recovery (the unemployment rate is estimated to have
fallen from 6.2% in 2014 to 4.9% in 2016).
The European Union (EU) and the Eurozone finished
2014 with economic growth indicators that were still
modest (1.3% and 0.8% respectively) though with a
rising tendency that should consolidate in 2015 and
2016 (1.3% and 1.9% in the Eurozone, 1.7% and 2.1%
for the whole EU). GDP growth will primarily be based
on higher domestic demand, which should benefit
from less restrictive monetary and fiscal policies and
declining oil prices. But investment prospects remain
unfavourable in 2015 (positive effects of the Investment
Plan will hopefully be felt in 2016).
Despite the recovery signs, the EU will have to find a
way to overcome the inherent problems of the situation
occurring in Greece and the effects of deflation.
The emerging markets’ performance was otherwise be-
lowwhat was expected in 2014, a tendency that should
continue in 2015.
Themain emerging economy was able to recover froma
negative beginning of the year, ending 2014with average
growth of 7.7%, despite lower external demand directed
to its industries. It is estimated that Chinese GDP growth
rates will continue their downturn, with an increase of
7.4% in 2015 and then 7.0% in 2016.
Russia is facing a serious economic/financial situation:
economy indecline, high inflation andhigh interest rates.
Besides the effect of lower oil prices on international
markets, the country is also facing tough economic
sanctions as a consequence of the conflict in Ukraine.
Situation in Portugal
Recent Bank of Portugal projections estimate that the
Portuguese economy grewby 0.9% in 2014 andwill grow
by 1.5% and 1.6% in 2015 and 2016 respectively.
In the first half of 2014 economic activity grewmoderately,
maintaining the gradual upturnof activity begun in 2013.
Strong export growth is expected to continue in2015 and
2016, alongwithaccelerationof gross fixed capital forma-
tion (GFCF) and some slowing of private consumption.
With the end of the Economic and Financial Assistance
Programme, and despite progress on various fronts,
there are evident problems achieving more robust eco-
nomic growth that can create qualified employment,
stimulate the goods and services export sector even
more and allow a sustained path toward public debt
reduction to begin.
