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As a consequence of unfavourable demographic trends,
inadequate training, low factor productivity andmainly
the lack of investment by companies (which have lim-
ited credit access due to excess indebtedness), the IMF
anticipates that the pace of GDP expansionwill stabilize
in the middle term at around 1.5% per year, manifestly
not enough to enable an approach to the standard of
living in the most developed European economies.
In this context, investment must be increased and struc-
tural reforms continued in all sectors of society, in order
to increase the ability to generatewealth by stimulating
economic activity: not just in traditional sectors but also
in areas with more added value, fostering innovation
and competitiveness.
Without active economic development policies and
more and better education, young people and the best
personnel will continue being forced to emigrate in
search of work and self-realization.
Situation in Spain
The Spanish economy performed well in 2014, with
GDP up 1.4%. The pace of expansion of economic activ-
ity sped up in the last quarter of 2014, with a stronger
contribution fromprivate consumption; the rebound is
likely to consolidate in upcoming quarters.
This improvement is based on higher disposable family
income resulting from the creation of employment, the
moderate rise in prices and the recovery of economic
players’ confidence, which has led to two-digit growth
in retail and automobile sales and, on the supply side,
in the installed capacity usage rate rising to its highest
level in the last six years.
The Spanish labour market has considerably improved,
with the jobless rate standing at 24.4% (2.3 percentage
points less than in 2013 or 326,000 fewer unemployed)
due to the recovery of productive activity, wage mod-
eration and favourable effects of the Labour Reform.
The economy should continue to grow at a pace above
the European average, with estimated growth of 1.8%
and 1.9% in 2015 and 2016, respectively, supported by
higher employment and better financing conditions.
Private consumption should rise by 2.5% in 2015 and
2.0% in 2016, driven by sustained improvement of the
labour market.
Investment is forecast to growby 3.0% in 2015 and 3.5%
in 2016, boosted by higher internal demand and ex-
pected growth of exports (5.8% in 2015 and 5.5% in 2016).
Situation in Angola
IMF forecasts indicateadecelerationof economic growth
in 2014, with GDP rising by 3.9%due to the slowdown in
the non-oil sector and lower revenue from oil activity.
The year 2015 will be marked by important challenges
for the Angolan economy resulting from the oil price
downturn on international markets.
In the 2015 state budget the Angolan government set
out an expansionist policy with a deficit of 7.6%of GDP,
assuming that the price of a barrel of oil wouldbeUSD 81.
But the lower price of that raw material forced budget
assumptions to be modified and a Rectified Budget
for 2015 to be drawn up. It revises the forecast oil price
downward, setting it at USD 40. According to the An-
golan Finance Ministry, a loss of USD 14 billion in fiscal
revenues is estimated.
To deal with this decline in revenue, the Angolan gov-
ernment made it a priority to lower public spending
and increase non-oil revenue, besides creating a new
tax on foreign exchange operations, measures which
will greatly affect the activity of companies operating
directly or indirectly in Angola.
The IMF forecasts 5.9%GDP growth in 2015 and stronger
growth in following years. But given the fall-off in oil
revenues, the forecasted growth may be less, due to
the Angolan state’s limited capacity for indebtedness.
Note that the Angolan Stock Exchange (BODIVA) began
activity in 2014, issuing public debt.
